History says GTA VI will be 2026's biggest game — but maybe not its best
The biggest, but not necessarily the best
On September 1, Collider published an analysis that cuts against the dominant narrative of the last few weeks. Yes, GTA VI will be the biggest game of 2026 — it will almost certainly outsell every other title on the calendar combined. But history, the outlet argues, suggests the biggest game is rarely the one that ends the year holding the Game of the Year trophy (Collider).
The precedent is hard to ignore. Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2 both came up short at the major award ceremonies, losing to The Last of Us and God of War (2018) respectively. Neither winner comes close to matching the scope and ambition of Rockstar's open worlds, but both delivered focused, emotional experiences. Players have bought a combined 317 million copies of GTA V and RDR2 — yet the critics' panels were not swayed by the numbers. With the fall and winter lineup as stacked as it is, Collider considers it easy to assume the 2026 ceremonies will end the same way for Rockstar.
Three credible challengers
Marvel's Wolverine (September 15) launches first. Insomniac's pedigree speaks for itself since Marvel's Spider-Man in 2018, yet the studio has never taken home the big trophy despite three nominations in its last four games. Collider notes that trimming the open-world fat that occasionally dragged down Spider-Man, combined with more visceral combat, makes Wolverine "the exact type of game that could snatch the gold from Grand Theft Auto VI" — a focused, cinematic PlayStation package, the same recipe that has beaten Rockstar twice before.
Gears of War: E-Day (October 6) may have an even bigger critical impact, according to Collider. The multiplayer open beta was universally praised, with Horde Siege singled out as a highlight that revamps the iconic mode. The campaign, set on Emergence Day with Marcus and Dom back in the spotlight, could hand Xbox its first-ever Game of the Year nomination — and its first win. A prequel dealing with the most important day in Gears lore is "ripe for a narrative" that brings back the feel of the original trilogy.
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time remake is the wildcard. The original remains the highest-rated game in Metacritic history at 99 — the only title to ever reach that number. A ground-up remake of the most influential 3D adventure ever made could exceed even the hype around Final Fantasy VII Remake, and Nintendo can do it without splitting the content into three full-priced releases. Collider expects a modernized Zelda rather than a 1:1 recreation, "a recipe for another Game of the Year caliber Legend of Zelda title."
A context that complicates things
Collider also lists everything that has dented the campaign's image: the digital-only decision, the $79.99 base price with a $99.99 Ultimate Edition that appeared to feature cut content, pre-orders opening before any gameplay was shown, the Netflix deal that effectively paywalled the Extended Look, and the "Cyberleek" leak that triggered a wave of DMCAs and a cyber hunt for the leaker. With GTA VI arriving November 19 — roughly three weeks before The Game Awards — voters will have a short turnaround to judge the game.
The outlet's conclusion is measured: Rockstar will break every sales record in the book, and it will be deserved given the meticulous craft of its worlds. But scale and quantity can also be a deterrent, and GTA VI is going even bigger than its predecessors. "Just don't be surprised if the final envelope at the end of the big night doesn't read 'Grand Theft Auto VI'."